The First Shot Fired: Schoemann Enters the Fray
A brisk Sunday afternoon at Elderberry Manor in West Bend, with the scent of grilled burgers and campaign anticipation in the air—the sort of wholesome tableau that so often belies the simmering conflicts of state politics. This was the chosen moment for Washington County Executive Josh Schoemann to plant the Republican flag as the first major party candidate in Wisconsin’s high-stakes 2026 gubernatorial race. Schoemann, a 43-year-old Operation Iraqi Freedom veteran and career public servant, rolled out his campaign with a folksy “Summer Kickoff Cookout,” setting the tone for an early, prolonged duel over the state’s future.
His opening volley comes long before most Wisconsinites have even begun to consider who might lead them into the latter part of this decade. According to official filings on the Wisconsin Campaign Finance Information System, Schoemann, who earned an Army Commendation Medal and was honorably discharged after years in the Army National Guard, isn’t just flexing his military bona fides. He is leveraging his experience as the elected leader of Washington County since 2020, following six years as county administrator and manager. Schoemann’s entry signals both a desire to set the agenda and a recognition that Republicans, long out of the governorship since Tony Evers’ 2018 victory, sense an opening they can’t afford to miss.
Whether Schoemann emerges from the GOP field is hardly decided. WIth rumors swirling about Bill Berrien—a Navy SEAL veteran turned manufacturing CEO—potentially following suit, and other Republican names like Congressman Tom Tiffany and businessman Eric Hovde weighing their options, primary voters will have no shortage of choices. Even so, Schoemann’s decision to jump in first illustrates a core lesson of modern politics: those willing to stake their claim early often shape both the framing and the urgency of the race.
A Divided Field and an Uncertain Democratic Future
The Democratic response has been swift and largely dismissive. State party leaders deride Schoemann as “far-right”—a moniker they’ve made good on rejecting in recent statewide contests. Still, there’s a subcurrent of concern: Democratic Governor Tony Evers, now serving his second term, has yet to reveal whether he’ll pursue a third. For Wisconsin Democrats, Evers’ popularity and stature would be the linchpin of their 2026 strategy. As Harvard political scientist Thea Donahue notes, “No incumbent in a swing state is ever truly safe, but incumbency can be a steep mountain for challengers, especially if the economy remains stable and extremism is kept at bay.”
Should Evers opt out, the scramble on the left promises to be messy and fierce. Names like Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, Milwaukee Mayor Cavalier Johnson, Attorney General Josh Kaul, Lieutenant Governor Sara Rodriguez, and Secretary of State Sarah Godlewski circulate among party faithful. What unites these figures is a commitment to progressive policies on healthcare, voting rights, and reproductive justice—commitments that run in stark relief to the Republican attacks on social safety nets and bodily autonomy. The contrast between Republican attempts at rollback and Democratic efforts at protection defines not just the emerging race, but the lived reality for millions of Wisconsinites.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball currently rates the race as “leaning Democratic,” largely because the power of incumbency is real and the broader electorate has shown no appetite for radical reversals. Yet recent history offers a cautionary tale. In 2016, Wisconsin swung for Donald Trump by a razor-thin margin, proving the state’s penchant for volatility. If Evers steps down, will a less established Democrat be able to mobilize a coalition that spans Milwaukee’s urban core, rural northern counties, and the swingy suburbs?
“No one should underestimate how quickly Wisconsin’s political winds can shift. The absence of a strong Democratic incumbent could transform this race overnight.”—Harvard political scientist Thea Donahue
What Divides Us: Policy Futures and the Stakes for Wisconsin
The stakes for 2026 couldn’t be clearer. Republicans are eager to reclaim the executive office, where they could potentially launch new efforts to restrict voting access, weaken reproductive freedom, and undermine public education. Schoemann, though positioning himself as a hometown moderate at his West Bend kickoff, faces skepticism about his party’s national trajectory—a trajectory that has, in the words of historian Kathleen Marlowe, “embraced exclusion over inclusion, and prioritized privilege over the common good.”
The ongoing debates over Medicaid expansion, education funding, and gun safety have put the state at the center of a broader American crossroads. According to a recent Pew Research Center survey, Wisconsinites consistently express strong support for expanded health coverage and reproductive choice. Yet, under GOP-dominated legislative majorities, progress has stalled or even reversed. What the governor’s office represents in Wisconsin has never been more consequential: a bulwark for progressive gains or a speed bump, if not an outright roadblock, to social justice.
It’s tempting, from the comfort of a campaign kick-off, to dwell in the nostalgia of small town roots and military medals. Yet, as Governor Evers’ allies frequently remind voters, symbolism is not substance. The next governor will inherit a state at a demographic and economic crossroads, where the choices on climate, infrastructure, and civil rights will reverberate for decades.
Are voters ready to return executive power to a party increasingly defined by culture wars and opposition to equity? The answer, as always in America’s Dairyland, may depend on who shows up—on both sides of the ballot.
